Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of chagas disease in Chile: mepraia spinolai and mepraia gajardoi

Garrido, Rubén; Bacigalupo, Antonella; Peña-Gómez, Francisco; Bustamante, Ramiro; Cattan, Pedro E.; Gorla, David E.; Botto-Mahan, Carezza

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dc.contributor.author	Garrido, Rubén
dc.contributor.author	Bacigalupo, Antonella
dc.contributor.author	Peña-Gómez, Francisco
dc.contributor.author	Bustamante, Ramiro
dc.contributor.author	Cattan, Pedro E.
dc.contributor.author	Gorla, David E.
dc.contributor.author	Botto-Mahan, Carezza
dc.date.accessioned	2023-03-29T12:23:11Z
dc.date.available	2023-03-29T12:23:11Z
dc.date.issued	2019
dc.identifier.uri	http://repositorio.ucm.cl/handle/ucm/4573
dc.description.abstract	Background: Mepraia gajardoi and Mepraia spinolai are endemic triatomine vector species of Trypanosoma cruzi, a parasite that causes Chagas disease. These vectors inhabit arid, semiarid and Mediterranean areas of Chile. Mepraia gajardoi occurs from 18° to 25°S, and M. spinolai from 26° to 34°S. Even though both species are involved in T. cruzi transmission in the Pacific side of the Southern Cone of South America, no study has modelled their distributions at a regional scale. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the potential geographical distribution of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi under current and future climate scenarios. Methods: We used the Maxent algorithm to model the ecological niche of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi, estimating their potential distributions from current climate information and projecting their distributions to future climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Future predictions of suitability were constructed considering both higher and lower public health risk situations. Results: The current potential distributions of both species were broader than their known ranges. For both species, climate change projections for 2070 in RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios showed different results depending on the methodology used. The higher risk situation showed new suitable areas, but the lower risk situation modelled a net reduction in the future potential distribution areas of M. spinolai and M. gajardoi. Conclusions: The suitable areas for both species may be greater than currently known, generating new challenges in terms of vector control and prevention. Under future climate conditions, these species could modify their potential geographical range. Preventive measures to avoid accidental human vectorial transmission by wild vectors of T. cruzi become critical considering the uncertainty of future suitable areas projected in this study.	es_CL
dc.language.iso	en	es_CL
dc.rights	Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Chile	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/	*
dc.source	Parasites Vectors, 12(1), 478	es_CL
dc.subject	Triatominae	es_CL
dc.subject	Wild vectors	es_CL
dc.subject	Trypanosoma cruzi	es_CL
dc.subject	Climate change	es_CL
dc.subject	Maxent	es_CL
dc.subject	Species distribution models	es_CL
dc.subject	Climate suitability	es_CL
dc.subject	Future scenarios	es_CL
dc.subject	Kissing bugs	es_CL
dc.title	Potential impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two wild vectors of chagas disease in Chile: mepraia spinolai and mepraia gajardoi	es_CL
dc.type	Article	es_CL
dc.ucm.facultad	Facultad de Ciencias Básicas	es_CL
dc.ucm.indexacion	Scopus	es_CL
dc.ucm.indexacion	Isi	es_CL
dc.ucm.doi	doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3744-9	es_CL